Company Coverage
Astra International (ASII IJ): GIIAS 2026 Traffic Increases; BEV Incentives Delayed
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Rp5000
Rp7100
+42.0%
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- Strong GIIAS momentum may help us exceed our 2026 4W target of +5.5% yoy. Our anecdotal evidence suggests the GIIAS 2026 event was a
success (30 Jul-9 August). This should be a precursor for a continued strong 2H after a strong 1H26 recovery of +16.4% yoy.
- Continued delay in BEV incentives. Previously scheduled for announcement on 1 Aug 26, the package has been delayed by two to three
weeks from 4 Aug 26.
- Maintain BUY with an SOTP-based target price of Rp7,100.
Analysis
- GIIAS BSD: A stronger turnout than expected. We visited the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD) on 6
Aug 26 (Thursday) and came away more positive on 2H26 4W demand, as the event drew noticeably stronger traffic than our last GIIAS 2025 visit
(based on anecdotal observation, as official visitor figures have yet to be released). Traffic was already heavy at the JORR toll gate heading to GIIAS, with the halls being packed, which was surprising for a weekday. With oil prices staying high and sustained, we think the pull toward cheaper/cleaner energy vehicles, such as EVs, PHEVs, and hybrids, is one of the key reasons why the GIIAS 2026 crowd was so busy.
- Strong interest in ASII’s hybrid despite stiff competition from new EV launches. ASII’s Toyota booth was one of the largest in the hall, with
Toyota's hybrid sales roughly doubling during GIIAS 2026 according to local news, despite a large number of new BEV launches. Last year, the
GIIAS BSD event accounted for ~1% of ASII’s total 2025 sales. This should be a positive precursor for 2H26 momentum, as it builds on an already-strong 1H26 ASII sales growth of 10.4% yoy - further GIIAS events in 2H26 across Surabaya, Bandung, Semarang, and Makassar are likely to sustain the trend.
- BEV city cars are gaining traction. The models that drew the most attention at GIIAS 2026 were BEV city cars, notably from the Chery group. The Chery booth was among the busiest, where the newly launched Chery Q3, priced at Rp239.9m-259.9m, recorded around 10,000 units in orders. The Jaecoo J5 also maintained traction, despite its price being raised twice since launch from Rp299m to Rp319m. A comparable model is the Lepas E4 at Rp339m, whose main draw is a 600km range against 461km for the J5, with around 300 units sold. Another notable entrant is the Changan Nevo Q05 at Rp359m, with 400 units sold. These launches have not yet affected Toyota's hybrids, as the Innova Zenix and Veloz Hybrid target the 7-seater segment. However, in our view, a 7-seater launch from these brands with a better interior priced at Rp400m-450m could pressure Toyota's hybrid sales.
- Another delay in BEV incentives. The battery electric vehicle (BEV) incentives, which were supposed to be released on 1 Aug 26, have been
delayed again. The latest update is that a new BEV incentive package will be announced within two to three weeks from 4 Aug 26, covering 500,000 BEVs and 500,000 electric motorcycles, for a total of 1m units. The incentive being prepared is a government-borne VAT (PPN-DTP) ranging from 40% to 100%, though the scheme is still being finalised and may treat nickel-based and lithium-based batteries differently. Surprisingly, we saw many BEV launches priced at lucrative value-for-money levels, especially in the Rp200-500m/unit range during the event. If demand remains strong, the risk of the incentives not being extended is plausible in our view.
- 1H26 results. ASII’s 1H26 revenue declined 3.0% yoy, with core net profit (excluding non-recurring items) at Rp14.9t. Reported net profit fell 19% yoy to Rp12.5t on Rp2.4t of non-recurring charges from equity fair value adjustments, a Supreme Energy impairment, and a Stargate forest utilisation payment.
- 2H26 outlook. The 4W industry recovery is expected to continue, with ASII maintaining its 2026 sales target of 850,000 units and a 50% market share target. Manufacturing margins are expected to soften in 2H26, especially toward year-end, as forex and raw material cost pressures flow through and price increases stay gradual amid competitive conditions. Sales margins, however, should stay resilient on a better product mix, disciplined discounting, and higher after-sales contribution. In financial services, higher interest rates should have limited near-term impact as funding costs adjust gradually, with longer-term repricing managed through funding optimisation, risk-based pricing, and a preference for profitability over aggressive loan growth. The heavy equipment, mining, construction and energy (HEMCE) segment will improve in 2H26, with the geothermal impairment already booked in 1H26 and Martabe gold volumes normalising toward a full-year target of 60,000 oz. There is also potential upside for the coal segment, as the RKAB budget has been raised from 7.5mt to 10.5mt.
Highlights
- Strong GIIAS momentum may help us exceed our 2026 4W target of +5.5% yoy. Our anecdotal evidence suggests the GIIAS 2026 event was a
success (30 Jul-9 August). This should be a precursor for a continued strong 2H after a strong 1H26 recovery of +16.4% yoy.
- Continued delay in BEV incentives. Previously scheduled for announcement on 1 Aug 26, the package has been delayed by two to three
weeks from 4 Aug 26.
- Maintain BUY with an SOTP-based target price of Rp7,100.
Analysis
- GIIAS BSD: A stronger turnout than expected. We visited the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) Bumi Serpong Damai (BSD) on 6
Aug 26 (Thursday) and came away more positive on 2H26 4W demand, as the event drew noticeably stronger traffic than our last GIIAS 2025 visit
(based on anecdotal observation, as official visitor figures have yet to be released). Traffic was already heavy at the JORR toll gate heading to GIIAS, with the halls being packed, which was surprising for a weekday. With oil prices staying high and sustained, we think the pull toward cheaper/cleaner energy vehicles, such as EVs, PHEVs, and hybrids, is one of the key reasons why the GIIAS 2026 crowd was so busy.
- Strong interest in ASII’s hybrid despite stiff competition from new EV launches. ASII’s Toyota booth was one of the largest in the hall, with
Toyota's hybrid sales roughly doubling during GIIAS 2026 according to local news, despite a large number of new BEV launches. Last year, the
GIIAS BSD event accounted for ~1% of ASII’s total 2025 sales. This should be a positive precursor for 2H26 momentum, as it builds on an already-strong 1H26 ASII sales growth of 10.4% yoy - further GIIAS events in 2H26 across Surabaya, Bandung, Semarang, and Makassar are likely to sustain the trend.
- BEV city cars are gaining traction. The models that drew the most attention at GIIAS 2026 were BEV city cars, notably from the Chery group. The Chery booth was among the busiest, where the newly launched Chery Q3, priced at Rp239.9m-259.9m, recorded around 10,000 units in orders. The Jaecoo J5 also maintained traction, despite its price being raised twice since launch from Rp299m to Rp319m. A comparable model is the Lepas E4 at Rp339m, whose main draw is a 600km range against 461km for the J5, with around 300 units sold. Another notable entrant is the Changan Nevo Q05 at Rp359m, with 400 units sold. These launches have not yet affected Toyota's hybrids, as the Innova Zenix and Veloz Hybrid target the 7-seater segment. However, in our view, a 7-seater launch from these brands with a better interior priced at Rp400m-450m could pressure Toyota's hybrid sales.
- Another delay in BEV incentives. The battery electric vehicle (BEV) incentives, which were supposed to be released on 1 Aug 26, have been
delayed again. The latest update is that a new BEV incentive package will be announced within two to three weeks from 4 Aug 26, covering 500,000 BEVs and 500,000 electric motorcycles, for a total of 1m units. The incentive being prepared is a government-borne VAT (PPN-DTP) ranging from 40% to 100%, though the scheme is still being finalised and may treat nickel-based and lithium-based batteries differently. Surprisingly, we saw many BEV launches priced at lucrative value-for-money levels, especially in the Rp200-500m/unit range during the event. If demand remains strong, the risk of the incentives not being extended is plausible in our view.
- 1H26 results. ASII’s 1H26 revenue declined 3.0% yoy, with core net profit (excluding non-recurring items) at Rp14.9t. Reported net profit fell 19% yoy to Rp12.5t on Rp2.4t of non-recurring charges from equity fair value adjustments, a Supreme Energy impairment, and a Stargate forest utilisation payment.
- 2H26 outlook. The 4W industry recovery is expected to continue, with ASII maintaining its 2026 sales target of 850,000 units and a 50% market share target. Manufacturing margins are expected to soften in 2H26, especially toward year-end, as forex and raw material cost pressures flow through and price increases stay gradual amid competitive conditions. Sales margins, however, should stay resilient on a better product mix, disciplined discounting, and higher after-sales contribution. In financial services, higher interest rates should have limited near-term impact as funding costs adjust gradually, with longer-term repricing managed through funding optimisation, risk-based pricing, and a preference for profitability over aggressive loan growth. The heavy equipment, mining, construction and energy (HEMCE) segment will improve in 2H26, with the geothermal impairment already booked in 1H26 and Martabe gold volumes normalising toward a full-year target of 60,000 oz. There is also potential upside for the coal segment, as the RKAB budget has been raised from 7.5mt to 10.5mt.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Rp5000
Rp7100
+42.0%
Analyst
Analyst
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