Key Indices
Top Stories
Economics | Indonesia Inflation Rises On Food Prices, With More Pressure Ahead
- Indonesia's Sep 26 headline inflation rose to 3.28% yoy, driven by escalating food prices, particularly chicken, beef, chilli, and rice, amid the El Niño phenomenon. Volatile food inflation jumped to 5.03%, while core inflation eased to 2.84% on lower gold prices and weaker demand. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures may gradually build into 2027, with El Niño and imported inflation posing risks. BI is expected to raise its policy rate to 6.00% by end-26.
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Earnings Delivery Amid Macro Uncertainty
- The JCI fell 7.9% mom in September amid macro pressure, while our picks declined 9.5%. October’s recovery depends on stabilising global yields, the rupiah and foreign flows, alongside stronger earnings delivery. The Fed meeting, 3Q26 results and market-structure changes remain key watchpoints. We rotate towards company-specific catalysts, adding TLKM, AADI and GOTO while removing AMMN, ARCI, and BMRI. Our picks are AADI, ASII, BBCA, BULL, CMRY, ELSA, GOTO, INKP, TLKM, and EXCL.
Technical Analysis
Bukit Asam | PTBA IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp3,160, and take profit at Rp3,400.
Sarana Menara Nusantara | TOWR IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp414, and take profit at Rp442.
Top Stories
Economics | Indonesia Inflation Rises On Food Prices, With More Pressure Ahead
- Indonesia's Sep 26 headline inflation rose to 3.28% yoy, driven by escalating food prices, particularly chicken, beef, chilli, and rice, amid the El Niño phenomenon. Volatile food inflation jumped to 5.03%, while core inflation eased to 2.84% on lower gold prices and weaker demand. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures may gradually build into 2027, with El Niño and imported inflation posing risks. BI is expected to raise its policy rate to 6.00% by end-26.
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Earnings Delivery Amid Macro Uncertainty
- The JCI fell 7.9% mom in September amid macro pressure, while our picks declined 9.5%. October’s recovery depends on stabilising global yields, the rupiah and foreign flows, alongside stronger earnings delivery. The Fed meeting, 3Q26 results and market-structure changes remain key watchpoints. We rotate towards company-specific catalysts, adding TLKM, AADI and GOTO while removing AMMN, ARCI, and BMRI. Our picks are AADI, ASII, BBCA, BULL, CMRY, ELSA, GOTO, INKP, TLKM, and EXCL.
Technical Analysis
Bukit Asam | PTBA IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp3,160, and take profit at Rp3,400.
Sarana Menara Nusantara | TOWR IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp414, and take profit at Rp442.
Key Indices
IMPORTANT NOTICE - DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
