Key Indices
Top Stories
Economics | Indonesia Inflation Eases On Softer Gold Prices, But More Pressure Looms
- Indonesia's headline inflation eased to 3.23% yoy in Oct 26, as softer gold prices and weak domestic demand pulled core inflation down to 2.56%, offsetting a sharp rise in volatile food inflation to 5.81% on El Niño-driven supply shortages. Markets remained cautious, with the rupiah weakening and yields rising. Inflation is expected to breach the 3.5% target by end-26. The worsening risk perception and rupiah depreciation are likely to force Bank Indonesia to raise rates to 6.00-6.25% by end-26.
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Earnings Resilience Amid MSCI Uncertainty
- October’s MSCI-driven sell-off pushed the JCI down 18.5%, while our Alpha Picks declined 13.3%, outperforming by 5.1%. November faces structural uncertainty from the Standalone consultation and potential deletions during the MSCI’s quarterly review. Solid 9M26 earnings remain concentrated in commodities, while rising yields, elevated oil prices and food inflation threaten the broader resilience. We retain our existing picks and add UNVR for its improving sales volumes and dividend prospects, while acknowledging persistent margin pressure and foreign-flow risks.
Technical Analysis
ESSA Industries Indonesia | ESSA IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp525, and take profit at Rp550.
Trimegah Bangun Persada | NCKL IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp730, and take profit at Rp765.
Top Stories
Economics | Indonesia Inflation Eases On Softer Gold Prices, But More Pressure Looms
- Indonesia's headline inflation eased to 3.23% yoy in Oct 26, as softer gold prices and weak domestic demand pulled core inflation down to 2.56%, offsetting a sharp rise in volatile food inflation to 5.81% on El Niño-driven supply shortages. Markets remained cautious, with the rupiah weakening and yields rising. Inflation is expected to breach the 3.5% target by end-26. The worsening risk perception and rupiah depreciation are likely to force Bank Indonesia to raise rates to 6.00-6.25% by end-26.
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Earnings Resilience Amid MSCI Uncertainty
- October’s MSCI-driven sell-off pushed the JCI down 18.5%, while our Alpha Picks declined 13.3%, outperforming by 5.1%. November faces structural uncertainty from the Standalone consultation and potential deletions during the MSCI’s quarterly review. Solid 9M26 earnings remain concentrated in commodities, while rising yields, elevated oil prices and food inflation threaten the broader resilience. We retain our existing picks and add UNVR for its improving sales volumes and dividend prospects, while acknowledging persistent margin pressure and foreign-flow risks.
Technical Analysis
ESSA Industries Indonesia | ESSA IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp525, and take profit at Rp550.
Trimegah Bangun Persada | NCKL IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp730, and take profit at Rp765.
Key Indices
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This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
