Company Coverage
Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ): 3Q26: Sequential Improvement, But Earnings And Valuation Remain Under Pressure
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rp515
Rp785
+52.4%
Rp1,120
Analyst
Highlights
- 3Q26 earnings broadly in line; sequential recovery continues, but PATMI remains weak yoy.
- Non-BPJS growth supports revenue, while soft patient demand and BPJS dependence constrain earnings visibility.
- Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp785, implying 6.5x 2027 EV/EBITDA as higher sovereign yields and MSCI uncertainty lead to a lower valuation multiple.
Analysis
- 3Q26 earnings improved sequentially but remained weak yoy. Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL) posted a 3Q26 revenue of Rp1.91t (+0.8% yoy, +4.8% qoq) and EBITDA of Rp530b (+1.9% yoy, +10.6% qoq), with EBITDA margin improving to 27.7% from 26.2% in 2Q26. The improvement was supported by higher medicine margins (32.4% vs. 31.1% in 2Q26) and lower employee costs relative to revenue. However, 3Q26 PATMI declined 16.6% yoy to Rp110b (+19.6% qoq), weighed down by higher depreciation following previous capacity expansion. Depreciation increased to 13.4% of revenue from 12.0% in 3Q25. 9M26 net profit is in line with our expectation, but below consensus’, accounting for 78%/64% of our/market 2026 estimates.
Highlights
- 3Q26 earnings broadly in line; sequential recovery continues, but PATMI remains weak yoy.
- Non-BPJS growth supports revenue, while soft patient demand and BPJS dependence constrain earnings visibility.
- Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp785, implying 6.5x 2027 EV/EBITDA as higher sovereign yields and MSCI uncertainty lead to a lower valuation multiple.
Analysis
- 3Q26 earnings improved sequentially but remained weak yoy. Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL) posted a 3Q26 revenue of Rp1.91t (+0.8% yoy, +4.8% qoq) and EBITDA of Rp530b (+1.9% yoy, +10.6% qoq), with EBITDA margin improving to 27.7% from 26.2% in 2Q26. The improvement was supported by higher medicine margins (32.4% vs. 31.1% in 2Q26) and lower employee costs relative to revenue. However, 3Q26 PATMI declined 16.6% yoy to Rp110b (+19.6% qoq), weighed down by higher depreciation following previous capacity expansion. Depreciation increased to 13.4% of revenue from 12.0% in 3Q25. 9M26 net profit is in line with our expectation, but below consensus’, accounting for 78%/64% of our/market 2026 estimates.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rp515
Rp785
+52.4%
Rp1,120
Analyst
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