Company Coverage
GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - 3Q26: Third Straight Profitable Quarter, Ahead of Forecast
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rp24
Rp60
+150.0%
Rp60
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- Solid profit growth despite the take-rate cut. 9M26 adjusted EBITDA rose 115% yoy, and guidance was raised to Rp3.5t-3.7t from Rp3.2t-3.4t.
- Buyback reached Rp985b since the price floor removal. This covers about 3% of outstanding shares, with Rp2.5t still available until Jun 27.
- Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rp60 as we await clarity on whether the 8% commission cap will be extended to delivery.
Analysis
- 9M26 results were ahead of our full-year forecast and company guidance. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO) booked 3Q26 net profit of Rp557b (+59% qoq, vs a Rp196b loss in 3Q25), its third profitable quarter in a row, bringing 9M26 net profit to Rp1.16t against a Rp776b loss in 9M25 (102% of our 2026 forecast and 138% of consensus). Net revenue rose 17% yoy to Rp5.6t but slipped 2% qoq due to the implementation of the 8% 2W take-rate cap, which caused on-demand service (ODS) net revenue to fall 8% qoq, partly offset by fintech (net revenue +12% qoq). 9M26 adjusted EBITDA reached Rp2.9t (+115% yoy), and management raised its 2026 guidance to Rp3.5t-3.7t from Rp3.2t-3.4t. 3Q26 profit was also supported by a Rp165b share of profit from associates (mainly Tokopedia, ~30% of net profit).
- Buyback accelerates after the price floor removal. After the removal of the Rp50.00 price floor back on 28 Sep 26, GOTO stepped up its buyback, spending Rp985b to buy back about 36b shares within a month (~3% of outstanding shares, implying an average of ~Rp27/share). This leaves Rp2.5t of its Rp3.5t buyback programme, which runs from Jun 26-Jun 27. Management expects to slow the pace from here to keep sufficient liquidity amid macro uncertainty. The 14 October EGM also approved the cancellation of 32b treasury shares (2.7% of total shares), and management plans to seek approval to cancel the newly bought shares as well. The company has ample cash of Rp24.3t at end-3Q26 (net cash of Rp16.1t, or ~Rp14/share) and positive free cash flow since early-26.
Highlights
- Solid profit growth despite the take-rate cut. 9M26 adjusted EBITDA rose 115% yoy, and guidance was raised to Rp3.5t-3.7t from Rp3.2t-3.4t.
- Buyback reached Rp985b since the price floor removal. This covers about 3% of outstanding shares, with Rp2.5t still available until Jun 27.
- Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rp60 as we await clarity on whether the 8% commission cap will be extended to delivery.
Analysis
- 9M26 results were ahead of our full-year forecast and company guidance. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO) booked 3Q26 net profit of Rp557b (+59% qoq, vs a Rp196b loss in 3Q25), its third profitable quarter in a row, bringing 9M26 net profit to Rp1.16t against a Rp776b loss in 9M25 (102% of our 2026 forecast and 138% of consensus). Net revenue rose 17% yoy to Rp5.6t but slipped 2% qoq due to the implementation of the 8% 2W take-rate cap, which caused on-demand service (ODS) net revenue to fall 8% qoq, partly offset by fintech (net revenue +12% qoq). 9M26 adjusted EBITDA reached Rp2.9t (+115% yoy), and management raised its 2026 guidance to Rp3.5t-3.7t from Rp3.2t-3.4t. 3Q26 profit was also supported by a Rp165b share of profit from associates (mainly Tokopedia, ~30% of net profit).
- Buyback accelerates after the price floor removal. After the removal of the Rp50.00 price floor back on 28 Sep 26, GOTO stepped up its buyback, spending Rp985b to buy back about 36b shares within a month (~3% of outstanding shares, implying an average of ~Rp27/share). This leaves Rp2.5t of its Rp3.5t buyback programme, which runs from Jun 26-Jun 27. Management expects to slow the pace from here to keep sufficient liquidity amid macro uncertainty. The 14 October EGM also approved the cancellation of 32b treasury shares (2.7% of total shares), and management plans to seek approval to cancel the newly bought shares as well. The company has ample cash of Rp24.3t at end-3Q26 (net cash of Rp16.1t, or ~Rp14/share) and positive free cash flow since early-26.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rp24
Rp60
+150.0%
Rp60
Analyst
Analyst
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