Key Indices
Top Stories
Economics | Indonesia GDP 3Q26: Headline Beat Masks Weaker Domestic Demand
- Indonesia’s 3Q26 GDP grew 5.47% yoy, beating consensus, but we view the upside as a statistical anomaly driven by slower net export contraction, inventory buildup, and statistical discrepancy rather than strong domestic demand. Household consumption, government spending, and investment remain on a slowing trend; informal employment rose and real wages fell. We forecast 5.3% growth in 4Q26 and 5.3-5.6% in 2027, but rising pressure should push Bank Indonesia to implement at least one 25bp policy rate hike by end-26.
Company Update | Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ/BUY/Rp1,310/Target: Rp1,900)
- Earnings remain resilient despite weaker patient volumes, supported by higher revenue intensity, and increasing contributions from complex treatements. However, slower utilisation recovery and upcoming hospital openings could constrain growth. We lower our target EV/EBITDA to 10.0x from 13.6x, reflecting higher country risk and weaker growth visibility, while retaining MIKA’s valuation premium given its stronger balance sheet and profitability. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp1,900.
Technical Analysis
Astra International | ASII IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp5,125, and take profit at Rp5,500.
Perusahaan Gas Negara | PGAS IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp1,480, and take profit at Rp1,600.
Top Stories
Economics | Indonesia GDP 3Q26: Headline Beat Masks Weaker Domestic Demand
- Indonesia’s 3Q26 GDP grew 5.47% yoy, beating consensus, but we view the upside as a statistical anomaly driven by slower net export contraction, inventory buildup, and statistical discrepancy rather than strong domestic demand. Household consumption, government spending, and investment remain on a slowing trend; informal employment rose and real wages fell. We forecast 5.3% growth in 4Q26 and 5.3-5.6% in 2027, but rising pressure should push Bank Indonesia to implement at least one 25bp policy rate hike by end-26.
Company Update | Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ/BUY/Rp1,310/Target: Rp1,900)
- Earnings remain resilient despite weaker patient volumes, supported by higher revenue intensity, and increasing contributions from complex treatements. However, slower utilisation recovery and upcoming hospital openings could constrain growth. We lower our target EV/EBITDA to 10.0x from 13.6x, reflecting higher country risk and weaker growth visibility, while retaining MIKA’s valuation premium given its stronger balance sheet and profitability. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp1,900.
Technical Analysis
Astra International | ASII IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp5,125, and take profit at Rp5,500.
Perusahaan Gas Negara | PGAS IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp1,480, and take profit at Rp1,600.
Key Indices
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This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
